Back in lockdown again.

[frozenpod]

Did anyone see the NSW press conference today. There was mention of modling suggesting the current restrictions will never reach zero and they are looking at easing restrictions.

[4liters]

Did anyone see the NSW press conference today. There was mention of modling suggesting the current restrictions will never reach zero and they are looking at easing restrictions.

Yeah they’re sounding pretty desperate over there. The new restrictions should start having an effect in a week or so and maybe that will give their contact tracing a chance to get ahead of the spread.

I’ve seen a few different attempts to model the NSW outbreak, the outcomes depend heavily on the assumptions made so unless you know a lot about both the assumptions and the reality on the ground they’re more of a guide than a form prediction. One I saw suggested it’ll take until September for them to get to zero cases. For reference in the Vic outbreak this time last year it took around 2 months to go from about 100 cases/day down to a run of 0s.

The issue they have is that if they give up trying to contain it the other states will impose a hard border until each state is vaccinated to a level where they’re willing to allow the virus to do its thing. That sort of scenario is going to leave the NSW economy probably just as shagged as a lockdown but at least people will be able to do stuff I guess.

The moral of the story I think is that it’s better to err on the side of caution when dealing with contagious diseases and an unnecessary lockdown is better in the long run than a late lockdown.

[Troy McLure]

Perhaps a mass vaccination in NSW might get them out of lockdown early. Vaccination seems the only way forward for the country whether we like it or not.

[4liters]

Perhaps a mass vaccination in NSW might get them out of lockdown early. Vaccination seems the only way forward for the country whether we like it or not.

Possibly, but the other states wouldn't relax the border restrictions until they're all vaccinated too because as we've seen in the UK even high vaccination rates allow the virus to spread pretty freely.

[Troy McLure]

Maybe but at least NSW could get back to work/school.

[frozenpod]

It will take months, even if all the vaccine went to NSW.

[Troy McLure]

One million a week for 3 weeks is well more than half their adult population. I heard we are getting a million doses of the Pfizer vaccine a week so assuming that is right then why can’t this be done?

[Mattblack]

One million a week for 3 weeks is well more than half their adult population. I heard we are getting a million doses of the Pfizer vaccine a week so assuming that is right then why can’t this be done?

I read they expect 80% vaccination rate in NSW by December....I'll be keeping a keen eye on the UK, I dont think they accounted for the Delta variant when deciding to re-open the country this week.

[Troy McLure]

I reckon everyone is watching the UK to see if they get it right.

[IFISHALOT]

I reckon everyone is watching the UK to see if they get it right.

Yeah interesting numbers yesterday
44,000 +'cases and 73 Deaths