ducky wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:38 pm
shazdoggg wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:53 am
A young lad(19-21)who was working at the Star casino in Sydney made the trip to crown melb for a gambling weekend(casino employees are prohibited from gambling at their casino for obvious reasons) in early 2018.
On the day he arrived he played Caribbean stud and hit the royal flush. This is no minor feat and he scooped the major jackpot for 1.3-4mill. This was on the main gaming floor so Crown staff were so kind to give him a gold card with Mahogany room/private saloon access(where the biggest
play) and a complimentary suite at Crown towers for a few nights.
Young lad then proceeded to play high stakes baccarat in a private saloon and ran his winnings up to >6mill. This has been verified by multiple friends who deal in these rooms. Within 2 days he busted that 6mill and flew back to Sydney(presumably a broken man). This story is no secret among the crown high stakes reg’s and is a story which is far too common.
Awesome story. Really easy to say he should have walked away at 6 mil. But the same attitude that cost him that was the same that helped him build it from $1.3M or so.
That’s why I stopped gambling more than a couple hundred bucks a year in my early 20’s. I just found that the more you won/lost the more you gambled. $5 bets turn into $500 bets if you’re doing well.
But man I watched your poker win live shazz and it was bloody amazing to see. Also cool to see you’ve put it into the right things too.
Its no secret that I used to gamble on many casino table games before I took up poker. You're right about gambling and how it can easily snowball out of control. Speaking from personal experience in my youth!
An important aspect of professional gambling is bankroll management and this often leads to the rise or fall of a gambler(professional or mug punter). Bankroll management refers to the amount that one risks on any single outcome or series of outcomes(eg, trifecta). Even casinos exercise this rule to avoid 'risk of ruin' aka going broke. For example, the maximum Crown casino will wager on any single event on any table game is 600kaud and this is usually reserved for high stakes baccarat. Crown casino will not accept a higher level of risk because there is a chance that a player could win that bet 1000 times in row and send the casino broke. Even betting 600kaud will require high level authorisation to approve.
The overwhelming majority of winning gamblers use the Kelly Criterion to ascertain how much risk they should be exposed to, based on their bankroll and 'edge' which is the mathematical advantage one has over a certain game. The 'edge' is usually based as a percentage and can often be variable(changing up and down)depending on many factors. Buffet and Munger have publicly acknowledged use of the Kelly criterion formula to the success of their investment strategy and has many uses in day to day living.
IMO the mistake that most people make(myself included when I was young) is that they don't follow the Kelly criterion and/or get emotional when betting which often affects ones judgement and criticial thinking. An example would be betting $50 to win $7500. Win and then betting the whole amount again on a single event. This is a sure fire way to either to get rich or go busto. Wouldn't be able to count on my hands how many times I ran a $50 online deposit on a poker site to 2k in a few weeks only to lose the whole amount in 1 or 2 hands!
Some of the worlds best(win the most)professional gamblers were and are Aussies. Many started as professional card counters(think MIT Blackjack movie) like Alan Woods, David Walsh(Owner and creator of MONA museum) and Zejlko Ranogajec who is arguably the most lucrative professional gambler the world has ever seen. The ATO went after the gambling syndicate that David and Zejlko are members of in an unprecedented court case, because previous to this gambling winnings were declared tax free. There is no doubt in my mind that these men are mathematical savants and the average punter doesn't stand a chance against their uber complex computer algorithms running on sports betting sites like betfair, topsport and pinnacle.
play) and a complimentary suite at Crown towers for a few nights. 
