Corona Virus Part 3

[happyfriggincamper]

Could someone explain this $1500 a fortnight payment please? I have a neighbour that was working 1 day a week and couldn’t work due to the social distancing issues...then bam the government gives her triple her normal salary whilst other people are struggling to make ends meet. ***** me when the system gets rorted...& I’m presuming my taxes will go up to support people like this.

I don't know, it's obviously poor stimi management but I think it's due to being such rushed circumstances to offer financial relief to a large majority of people demanding it from the government - putting in a system to calculate and balance payments to align with actual lost income would have been a nightmare and further slowed the delivery of any benefits to anyone and likely had a continuation of problems that would be dragging resources away from more needed focuses to fix whatever problems a complex system like that could throw out (eg. Not matching incomes correctly, fwits trying to claim more than they are due, etc)

So yeah, imo not great - but I can totally understand why this may have happened.

[purple5ive]

Another interesting Approach.

Controversial plan to stop the spread using big data

I shudder at the thought of this approach!!
Privacy laws just went out the Door!

[4liters]

Best I get in early and start a centrelink application then...

See if your work can apply for the jobkeeper payment, you’d get more money that way than getting on the dole
[/quote]

Could someone explain this $1500 a fortnight payment please? I have a neighbour that was working 1 day a week and couldn’t work due to the social distancing issues...then bam the government gives her triple her normal salary whilst other people are struggling to make ends meet. ***** me when the system gets rorted...& I’m presuming my taxes will go up to support people like this.
[/quote]

The government will pay businesses $1500 a fortnight to keep on an employee as long as the employee gets paid the $1500. Part time workers win in this situation because they probably earned less than $1500 a fortnight prior to this but the JobKeeper payments are a flat rate.

Two reasons why this isn't a bad thing:

- having the government trying to match the payments to someone's exact wage if they make less than $1500 would be a pain in the arse, and who's to say they magically didn't get a pay rise to $1500 a fortnight right before this measure was introduced... This needs to be implemented ASAP or businesses will not be able to afford to pay people while it gets rolled out, more people would lose their jobs and a lot of those wouldn't get them again on the other side of all this. That said, the legislation still hasn't been introduced to parliament yet so we only have the initial proposal to go off, this could change a lot before it passes depending on what get negotiated.

- people who earn SFA tend to have a huge list of stuff that they need but can't afford; getting the car serviced, dentist, a new pair of shoes etc. Giving those people money stimulates the economy far more than giving to someone who earns a lot of money because they need less and therefor spend less of any additional money they receive. It's an economic phenomenon called 'propensity to spend', it's quite an important consideration in policy design.

I guess the other thing I'd add is that if people were more concerned with what they themselves make and less inclined to grouch about what other people make I feel like we'd all be a lot better off. All punching down like that does is put pressure on people to reduce wages, or takes away any pressure to increase them.

[4liters]

Australian official modelling to be released today. But this is the modelling I’ve been watching pretty closely. The forecast isn’t doom and gloom. Unless of course you want normality back. Cos it ain’t happening between now and a vaccine being made.

Best I get in early and start a centrelink application then...

See if your work can apply for the jobkeeper payment, you’d get more money that way than getting on the dole

That's likely to go ahead, but without a single cent coming in outside of government handouts, and the only state in the whole country to outright ban fishing that's looking like extended well into next snapper season to even next year.... there's only so much bleeding a business can take

Do you run it? Is there any chance of getting in touch with banks/landlords to put a freeze on the mortgage/rent to keep the overheads to a minimum until this blows over?

[cobby]

Australian official modelling to be released today. But this is the modelling I’ve been watching pretty closely. The forecast isn’t doom and gloom. Unless of course you want normality back. Cos it ain’t happening between now and a vaccine being made.

Best I get in early and start a centrelink application then...

See if your work can apply for the jobkeeper payment, you’d get more money that way than getting on the dole

That's likely to go ahead, but without a single cent coming in outside of government handouts, and the only state in the whole country to outright ban fishing that's looking like extended well into next snapper season to even next year.... there's only so much bleeding a business can take

what makes you say that mate?
heres me hoping we will be pulled in line with the other states very soon (in terms of fishing i mean)

You've got the Gestapo flagging tighter lockdowns despite all data pointing to downwards pressure on the health system. And then you've got 2 dumb dumbs going out in a tinny with 30 knot winds blowing sparking a now 3 day search for what will be dead bodies. Not to mention the fines they're handing out like lollies to the ones who are going out plus the extra police that are literally just driving around....

[cobby]

Australian official modelling to be released today. But this is the modelling I’ve been watching pretty closely. The forecast isn’t doom and gloom. Unless of course you want normality back. Cos it ain’t happening between now and a vaccine being made.

Best I get in early and start a centrelink application then...

See if your work can apply for the jobkeeper payment, you’d get more money that way than getting on the dole

That's likely to go ahead, but without a single cent coming in outside of government handouts, and the only state in the whole country to outright ban fishing that's looking like extended well into next snapper season to even next year.... there's only so much bleeding a business can take

Do you run it? Is there any chance of getting in touch with banks/landlords to put a freeze on the mortgage/rent to keep the overheads to a minimum until this blows over?

No but I've been privvy to most of it. Provided people can be fishing after winter I should be fine. Any time after that puts serious strain on future critical stock purchasing etc. And without that stock there's minimal sales over this period next season which then impacts the following season and its a cycle that will take a miracle to get out of

[ducky]

Day 26 Scoreboard for Tuesday 7th April (8:40pm data):

5,919 total Australian confirmed cases.

124 new

+2% single day increase.

TODAY WE LOWERED THE CURVE (-1%)

+2% daily increase (rolling 3 day average).

Today we earned our third Suppression Flag by maintaining the 3 day average growth rate at or below 3%. Given that we have also maintained our confirmed case growth at or below 3% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this signals that we have entered…

Phase 3: Suppression

Over our 15 day long Mitigation Phase (which started on the 24th of March) we averaged a -1.5% daily rate of reduction of cases. We have reduced our daily case growth (3 day average) from +24% to +2% today.

8 new deaths in the past 24 hours means that the

AU death toll has now risen to 48.

Please note, text and numbers updated today are highlighted in BOLD

Hi everyone, my name is** Scott **and I will be presenting today’s update of confirmed COVID-19 cases (and projections) for Australia on behalf of our hard working Melbourne-based collective!

On Monday we switched away from the simple Exponential Growth (EG) model and moved to a new one, which we have called Mitigation+Suppression (M+S). We also changed from plotting the Y axis linearly, to exponentially (using base 10). Growth rates are calculated based on the average of the most recent 3 days of confirmed new infections (each day and average rounded to the whole %). Projected new cases are rounded up to the next whole number.

This new model presents (and utilises) our full history of total case numbers, detects what phase we are currently in, then makes projections into the future based on a small number of conditions and rates that we can adjust for each phase. Our aim is not to try and nail a prediction of the future, we simply want to illustrate how varying these rates and conditions can influence our future case load.

The new model also estimates “active cases” based on the sum of our new cases in the last 10 days (directly, no “distribution about a mean” of these cases in time). We also plot a selected percentage of active cases; presently we have chosen to display 5% of active cases. This is a conservative estimate of the proportion that might require ICU treatment. Estimates on this vary and the local data is still emerging, so interpret these numbers with care. We have refrained from providing a line representing our available ICU resources, as this is also changing with new bed and ventilator resources being brought online. For reference, in previous models and updates we have used a number of 2,000 beds (available for COVID-19) as an estimate.

According to the parameters of our model we are currently in: Phase 3: Suppression

In this phase, our model estimates our potential future case growth at 1%, 2% and 3% per day, with these growth rates remaining steady into the future. These rates will be indicated as Scenarios S1, S2 and S3 respectively.

Maintenance of the Suppression phase cannot be assumed. A return to Phase 1: Exponential Growth phase would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).

Additionally if we returned to a growth phase, three Mitigation Flags would then consequently signal a return Mitigation, while any 3 out of 4 days below 3% would signal a direct return to Suppression Phase.

NOTE: We have decided to add graphs of locally transmitted cases for NSW and Victoria to these daily updates.

The case numbers of today for NSW, and yesterday for Vic have not yet been updated, hence we have no new updated graphs to offer at this time.

Please see the recently updated features at our recommended website if you would like to review the breakdown of transmission sources in more detail for these and other selected states: https://www.covid19data.com.au/

NEW: This website also launched a new tab of data this week which deals with Testing, with detailed trends on local and international testing rates.

As of 10pm yesterday Australia has:

• Conducted 302,759 tests in total (+5,000 last half day)

• Tested 1,189 people per 100,000 of population (1.19%)

• Returned 1.92% positive tests

While we’ve made some very encouraging progress this week, we want to caution everyone against overconfidence or misrepresenting these results. A sharp increase in community transmission, increased testing rates or a broadening of the criteria for testing eligibility,** could all result in a break-out from the current Suppression trend, and a return to an Exponential Growth or Mitigation phase.**

We will continue to provide three separate modelling Suppression Scenarios for your consideration. These should NOT be interpreted as predictions. Nor should they be considered to directly correlate with specific levels of response, they are merely sample outputs.

This data should not be interpreted as an excuse to “take our foot off the pedal”. We currently have the opportunity to continue suppressing this disease locally (tightly limiting its growth and spread), we should make the very most of it. Every fraction of a percent we are able to reduce the steady-state daily growth rate by, helps us to potentially shorten the crisis and reduce its impact on our society and people.

Scenario S1: Strong Suppression - 1% daily case growth

This scenario is currently a reasonable fit for countries with high rates of testing and effective contact tracing that are holding case growth to very low levels (i.e. South Korea). This level is probably our best case scenario.

Scenario S2: Weak Suppression - 2% daily case growth

This scenario presents a less effective suppression phase, with cases continuing to grow steadily at 2%.

Scenario S3: Very Weak Suppression - 3% daily case growth

This scenario presents a much less effective suppression phase, with cases continuing to grow steadily at 3%. At this rate of growth we would exceed our recent current peak case numbers in less than 5 weeks, and keep climbing.

Remember, our actions today will only show up in this data in 1 week’s time (at best). The next 7-10 days of confirmed infections are likely already beyond our control.

Please double check for any errors/oversights and comment below.

Consume critically. SHARE WIDELY. Act appropriately.

Join this group for daily updates (usually between ~5 and 9pm once data for all states is confirmed)

Data Sources:

Preferred:

https://www.covid19data.com.au/

Alternate:

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... se-numbers

and (occasionally): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

Essential Reading List:

(Our particular favourites and most trusted, not intended to be a balanced selection of viewpoints)

Australian Numbers / Voices:

Megan Higgie and Andrew Kahn:

https://medium.com/@megan.higgie/withou ... f83b52756e

John Daly:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03- ... oC5v9PaAyc

AUS Government / Doherty COVID19 Modelling White Papers:

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/cont ... pendix.pdf

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/cont ... 9_Apr7.pdf

Global Numbers / Strategies / Warnings Reading List:

Tomas Puyeo (for Medium)

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... b886af37e9

NZ Government COVID19 Modelling White Papers:

https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/ ... ng-reports

MIT:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6153 ... 18-months/

Imperial College UK:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Tableau:

https://www.tableau.com/about/blog/2020 ... HSylLH9dkg

DISCLAIMERS:

These are completely unofficial predictions made based on current and historical data by people who are definitely not epidemiologists. Interpret at your own risk, we make no claims or guarantees. Please consider a broad range of information sources and opinions on this topic.

This report is a product of a collective, and incorporates advice, feedback and modelling from a broad range of contributors. Like everyone, we are capable of mistakes and omissions, for that we apologise in advance. You can trust us to publicly own any mistakes we do make.

[purple5ive]

LMAO, what were these people thinking

Fines Galore

[davek]

I saw 4 caravans travelling out of Melbourne way today, 3 on the Hume, 1 on the Northern Hwy, I hope they get fined, cheers davo

[purple5ive]

I saw 4 caravans travelling out of Melbourne way today, 3 on the Hume, 1 on the Northern Hwy, I hope they get fined, cheers davo

i believe you are now allowed to travel between your normal home and holiday home.
possibly could have been doing that?