Corona virus part 2

[Robbie1950]

Truedogz, I'm interested in the comparison of Australia's numbers and New Zealand's. Who is 'flattening the curve better'? Jacinta Ardern took a different approach of locking down right away. I'm interested to see if this approach actually helped them in any way in comparison to ours?

[Bugatti]

Cheater, (without quoting and making this post cluttered)

I totally agree with your points.

All those "extra" things I mentioned AND all the "consequential" things you mentioned are a balancing act. It's about the intent of the law more than the letter of the law..

I mentioned a few times previously , getting out for mental wellbeing , so even on those merits it is worth all the "extras" of going fishing.

A purposeful trip is different to a recreational trip.

The correlation to those joggers who exercise , , , , how many jog from their homes, locally and back , , , , to those that would drive some distance to their favourite park AND all the extra choices they make. So even though the "road trip" to the park is part of "getting exercise" and accepted , , , , it is no different to going fishing.

Same as going to the supermarket for groceries rather than going to the supermarket only for a chocolate bar

That goes the same for any activity.

It's all a conundrum.

Regards, Bugatti

[Truedogz]

Truedogz, I'm interested in the comparison of Australia's numbers and New Zealand's. Who is 'flattening the curve better'? Jacinta Ardern took a different approach of locking down right away. I'm interested to see if this approach actually helped them in any way in comparison to ours?

Robbie I am loathed to say someone was better than another. Every country is a different scenario. That said if you look at some of the charts posted it took off very fast in NZ and as of yesterday the doubling time was a lot worse than that of oz. Jacinda Ardern had no choice but to come down hard or risk devastation. They also have a low per capita ratio of ICUs. The chart shows as of yesterday NZ was applying great pressure to turn it around. We should see the T2 (doubling time) figure rise over the next few days.

Our governments have come in for criticism over the cruise ships etc. No doubt there have been some mistakes. Our federation and multi-tiered levels of government makes things difficult, people forget that the feds don't have the range of powers that some other governments do due to the constitutional relationships with the states.

I think one reason our borders remained 'porous', apart from stuff ups, and the delay in rolling out some of the restrictions was to get as many of our citizens home as possible. I think we should count ourselves lucky to be Australians.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

[skronkman]

just for my own research purposes, can anyone point me to the actual laws that prohibit fishing presently? I don’t see how it is legal to fine or jail people if they haven’t broken a law. I have seen the warnings and threats about breaking social distancing and quarantine advice but I haven’t actually seen any reference to an enforceable law. Even if these 2 measures (social distancing and quarantine rules) are in fact laws the it is still possible to go fishing within these guidelines. I’m not talking about a link to news.com.au, please spare me from that.

I’m not encouraging people to go fishing and I understand the argument for “the intention” of the rules, I’m not going down that route. I’m thinking of the bigger picture (the implications this has philosophically, democratically, etc)

[purple5ive]

just for my own research purposes, can anyone point me to the actual laws that prohibit fishing presently? I don’t see how it is legal to fine or jail people if they haven’t broken a law. I have seen the warnings and threats about breaking social distancing and quarantine advice but I haven’t actually seen any reference to an enforceable law. Even if these 2 measures (social distancing and quarantine rules) are in fact laws the it is still possible to go fishing within these guidelines. I’m not talking about a link to news.com.au, please spare me from that.

I’m not encouraging people to go fishing and I understand the argument for “the intention” of the rules, I’m not going down that route. I’m thinking of the bigger picture (the implications this has philosophically, democratically, etc)

I think most of the population are happy enough to Oblige by the Rules Put in place temporarily by the government in these trying times.

is the repeated telecast on national TV of the following

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE,
Unless you have to go to the doctors, go to work, go for an exercise outing or go for some essential supplies Not mean anything to you?

it is easier for the government to say what you can do (within reason) than what you cannot do in this given situation, hence why im guessing they have Worded it like this at present!

[Truedogz]

OK, re the modelling I provided for Victoria. As I said it was an example of how it works, NOT a prediction particularly with regards to the number of patients requiring intensive care etc as I did not adjust any of the health parameters except for ICU units. So there won't be 25000 people requiring ICUs at once, but the example I did was to show how flattening the curve reduce the pressure by 2/3. The graphs though for the numbers infected and the timing are reasonable.

Numbers dead depend on several other parameters:
1. Age profile of death rates, not in this model, but which I have included in my own calculation. If you isolate those most likely to die, eg >60 years, there is a massive impact on deaths;
2. Hospital capacity to treat serious cases.

In The AMA journal this morning has been released some modelling for NSW:

https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/202 ... 0335-1.pdf

I have been working on my modelling for Victoria for a few days but this publication for NSW comes up with similar results to what I have for Victoria.

The NSW results:
(NSW estimate of ICU beds available = 874)

If Ro = 2.4, peak hospitalisation in July, ICU patients at peak = 11,791

If Ro = 1.6, peak hospitalisation in October/November, ICU patients at peak = 5109

The result: even with the flattened curve there could be 5X the number of patients requiring ICUs compared to capacity!!!

Note that their projections for the peaks is very similar to the two graphs I posted.

I won't release my exact numbers for Victoria but the capacity problems are very similar.

The only ways to prevent ICU overload are to stop this thing in its tracks or flatten the curve and isolate the most vulnerable.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

[4liters]

just for my own research purposes, can anyone point me to the actual laws that prohibit fishing presently? I don’t see how it is legal to fine or jail people if they haven’t broken a law. I have seen the warnings and threats about breaking social distancing and quarantine advice but I haven’t actually seen any reference to an enforceable law. Even if these 2 measures (social distancing and quarantine rules) are in fact laws the it is still possible to go fishing within these guidelines. I’m not talking about a link to news.com.au, please spare me from that.

I’m not encouraging people to go fishing and I understand the argument for “the intention” of the rules, I’m not going down that route. I’m thinking of the bigger picture (the implications this has philosophically, democratically, etc)

I think most of the population are happy enough to Oblige by the Rules Put in place temporarily by the government in these trying times.

is the repeated telecast on national TV of the following

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE,
Unless you have to go to the doctors, go to work, go for an exercise outing or go for some essential supplies Not mean anything to you?

it is easier for the government to say what you can do (within reason) than what you cannot do in this given situation, hence why im guessing they have Worded it like this at present!

Is kayak fishing considered exercise?

In practical terms I’m less than 20min from a bunch of secluded launch spots and once on the water you’re a fair distance from anyone else even on a busy day.

I went for a paddle last night, I was the only one on the river but the walking track on both banks was chokkas

[hornet]

I think the wording says it precisely "DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE" this covers all scenarios, essential movements only to survive, doctors, chemists, supermarkets, it does make me slightly frustrated whilst most are conforming some are carrying on with their life as if it doesn't effect them. install chain barriers on the boat ramps so launching is impossible. This is the only way to get through to these selfish people.

[purple5ive]

I think the wording says it precisely "DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE" this covers all scenarios, essential movements only to survive, doctors, chemists, supermarkets, it does make me slightly frustrated whilst most are conforming some are carrying on with their life as if it doesn't effect them. install chain barriers on the boat ramps so launching is impossible. This is the only way to get through to these selfish people.

yep thats the key words, the Nail on the head if you wish..
if that doesn't make sense to you, then its time to go back to school (when they reopen of course)

[skronkman]

just for my own research purposes, can anyone point me to the actual laws that prohibit fishing presently? I don’t see how it is legal to fine or jail people if they haven’t broken a law. I have seen the warnings and threats about breaking social distancing and quarantine advice but I haven’t actually seen any reference to an enforceable law. Even if these 2 measures (social distancing and quarantine rules) are in fact laws the it is still possible to go fishing within these guidelines. I’m not talking about a link to news.com.au, please spare me from that.

I’m not encouraging people to go fishing and I understand the argument for “the intention” of the rules, I’m not going down that route. I’m thinking of the bigger picture (the implications this has philosophically, democratically, etc)

I think most of the population are happy enough to Oblige by the Rules Put in place temporarily by the government in these trying times.

is the repeated telecast on national TV of the following

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE,
Unless you have to go to the doctors, go to work, go for an exercise outing or go for some essential supplies Not mean anything to you?

it is easier for the government to say what you can do (within reason) than what you cannot do in this given situation, hence why im guessing they have Worded it like this at present!

Well, you didn’t point me to the laws or legislation but I appreciate your response. The government can say anything it wants, it doesn’t necessarily make it an enforceable law automatically (sadly there are exceptions)

We (supposedly) live in a land governed by representative democracy and rule of law. I’m speculating that there is no enforceable law to the effect of what has been broadly publicised. I’m interested in knowing if the media has been co-opted by government in an attempt to control the populace with threats and fear only. Which is how it appears to me. I’m curious as to what implications this might have on the future of a free society if everyone simply complies. The road to authoritarianism is often (read sometimes and unlikely) paved with good intentions.

Anyone that has read Orwell and Kafka will understand the angles from which my mind is enquiring.