Back in lockdown again.

[dazz999]

Which LGA has Reff of 4.

Looks like more direct intervention with that LGA is required.

Where dis the soread occur, workplaces?

The information is not being made freely available and I think it should - other countries do it and it can help educate the public. As to where I'm not going to be specific but the west and north are issues.

In Melbourne Reff is being influenced by demographics and behaviour. In the case of the former family size is an influence and that is something we can't change. A bloke comes home to a family of 3 and infect all 3 in one suburb, in another he comes home to a family of 5. The data the state gov has is quite fine grained and they can identify within an LGA hot spots and also areas with low Reff. This is actually happening. Movement between households is definitely an issue - spreading the virus to the greatest risk setting.

I used to be very conscientious with following the rules, not so much now...I'm still doing it, but I'm really tired of it.

Matt everybody is tired and worried this going to go on forever. Its not. Right now the end game is in front of us. That does not mean that everything will go back to 100% of what is was two years ago - it won't. There will be vaccine passports, check ins, local restrictions with outbreaks. That looks like how its going to pan out. I think the premier is being sincere, even upbeat now, about 'opening up once we get through this phase. There is a change in tone, it is refreshing, and because of that I am optimistic. I know they are looking at modelling similar to that done for Sydney on how to ease things through this phase. If people are really interested I can perhaps provide some of the Sydney info.

As I said vax is being rolled out big time and the virus is rolling in. So the next couple of months is going to shake things out. For now the best we can do is get vaccinated and control our behaviour for a softer landing (1,000 cpd) instead of a hard landing (10,000 cpd).

People keep raising the thought of boosters in the near future. If we get over 80% I think for most it will be less likely than people think. Yes, vaccine protection wanes over time but where boosters are being delivered in countries such as Israel is because their vax rate is lower than 80%. The booster is largely to reduce the frequency of mild cases in previously vaxed people to reduce the risks to those with no vax. I can see the need for high risk workers to get boosters but if we get over 80% I don't think boosters will be needed for a while. Most people will be exposed to the virus over the next six months which will in effect act as a booster.

So my message is there is some sort of finish line approaching us which should end much of the misery since this started. What we do in the interim will greatly affect the final outcome.

Thank you for taking the time for input you have provided .I would be interested in some of the Sydney info Cheer,s Dazz

[Truedogz]

I would be interested in some of the Sydney info Cheer,s Dazz

Ok Dazz I'll present a bit of stuff here.

Several groups provide modelling to State Governments and in this case the NSW Government. One of them is a group from the University of Melbourne which includes Tony Blakely. Earlier on in the Sydney outbreak they modelled options to bring case numbers down to 5 cpd. The modelling included a range of vaccine strategies and restrictions eg Level 4, etc.

From their report this was their brief:

"To assist policymaking in NSW, and public understanding, our objectives were:

To estimate how long it would take to reach fewer than five cases per day, under 12 combinations of three strengths of lockdown (weak, moderate, and strong) by four vaccination roll-out scenarios: (a) as per original plan, b) prioritizing essential workers with Pfizer, c) b plus rapid vaccination of 25% of <60-year-old adults with AstraZeneca, and d) b plus rapid vaccination of 50% of <60-year-old adults with AstraZeneca.

To estimate the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the 100 days after 1 August 2021 for the 12 above scenarios."

Below is the graph for the standard vaccine rollout at that time and underneath the outcomes. While the primary purpose of the graph was to compare outcomes under a range of restrictions you can use the trajectories at different vaccination marks to anticipate how changing restrictions at that point will change progress. In reality you would use the actual data and statistical descriptors but for the average person a visual representation is useful. For example consider 50% vaccination at October 20. If at that point you switch from 3b to stage 3 restrictions lower the yellow line to the red line to look at the the difference in projections.

I'll make three points here. First other groups like the Burnet Institute are doing very detailed, fine grained modelling on the situation in Sydney. I will talk more about this in the next post. Second NSW is going much better than this model with their vaccine rollout. The impact on that graph is that the peaks are earlier and lower. Third they are no longer going for 5 cpd but a manageable figure beyond 80% vax. This gives them more latitude. So what is presented is not how it is going to pan out at this stage. It may well be better unless something goes wrong like a major outbreak in Newcastle etc.

Ref:
Can a vaccine-led approach end NSW’s outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?
Laxman Bablani, Tim Wilson, Hassan Andrabi, Vijaya Sundararajan, Driss Ait Ouakrim, Patrick Abraham, Jason Thompson, Tony Blakely
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262252

[Truedogz]

As I indicated the Burnet Institute has been modelling for the NSW Government and provided a detailed report on August 25 which is not publicly available. Today the Premier released a document illustrating the likely daily cases and hospitalisations. It can be accessed here:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/fi ... pacity.pdf

Below is one of the figures from that doc. I've placed it here so people can compare it to what Chris Billington's graph is forecasting at this point below. Billington is providing good real time projection while the Burnet Institute has made great projections nearly nearly two weeks out - pretty good shooting:

[purple5ive]

What about kids will.
Do they have anything in place for kids under 12. As it stands they can pass the virus on as they aren't vaccinated.
How will the vaccine passport work if kids are involved, aka family wants to dine out, parents have passport, kids don't. The kids are still going to bring it in with them if they are infected. So how does the passport work in these circumstances.

[Truedogz]

What about kids will.

Great question!

First thing is the priority with the whole pandemic is to minimise deaths and serious illness. Fortunately this is quite rare in children under 12. There is something we will have to keep an eye on I'll mention in a moment.

The detailed modelling being done for the National Cabinet factors in 0 vaccination in those under 12 with known rates off infectiveness etc. In fact when I did my example for the forum a few days ago I did the same. So the modelling does consider the transmission by the young ones. This contributes to the incursions, failures and R eff.

Ultimately we will want to vaccinate children under 12 to minimise any impacts on them plus further reduce transmission in the community. Apart from the antivaxxers there are a whole lot of other people needing protection such as the immunocompromised.

Now the thing we need to watch with the young ones is MIS-C syndrome post covid however a number of papers soon to be published have linked this to having both covid and certain environmental conditions as well as a genetic predisposition. At this pointed not reported here and we may not have the conditions to promote it.

Again, from overseas data the health of those under 12 is more adversely affected if they have dual infections with covid and another virus such as influenza. We are probably fortunate that the timing of the 'opening up' is happening over summer which reduces this risk.

Presumably 'vaccine passports' will be exempt for those under 12. Might need proof of age just like concession fares. I guess that is what they will do. I think they might exempt those under 16 from a passport as the 12-16 cohort aren't in the original Doherty modelling. Thats one thing that I think the Queensland premier is correct on and that is we should get as many of them vaccinated as possible even if it isn't 80%. Every bit helps.

[Longbombs]

Someone give True Dogz a medal for posting these long, detailed posts in a fishing forum of all things.

Accurate scientific information presented clearly is no easy feat.

You have my applause!

[e.welch]

I thought the COVID vaccine didn’t prevent you from spreading it it just made the effects of COVID less and gave you a smaller chance of death and that even if you are fully vaccinated you can still spread covid

[4liters]

I thought the COVID vaccine didn’t prevent you from spreading it it just made the effects of COVID less and gave you a smaller chance of death and that even if you are fully vaccinated you can still spread covid

It reduces your chances of catching it at all, and if you do catch covid it reduces your likelihood of spreading it as your viral load is much lower. So it doesn’t guarantee anything but it shifts the odds greatly in your favour.

[frozenpod]

I thought the COVID vaccine didn’t prevent you from spreading it it just made the effects of COVID less and gave you a smaller chance of death and that even if you are fully vaccinated you can still spread covid

As per 4lts comment, reduces you chance of catching covid and if you do catch covid your chance of spreading is reduced by 60-65% depending on the vaccine.

[Truedogz]

I thought the COVID vaccine didn’t prevent you from spreading it it just made the effects of COVID less and gave you a smaller chance of death and that even if you are fully vaccinated you can still spread covid

The reasons for vaccination are in order of priority are 1. reduce death, 2. reduce serious illness 3. reduce transmission.

Elsewhere I have posted some figures on this. Specifically with Delta those that get fairly ill are just as infectious as those that are unvaccinated making it worse than earlier strains. What is different is that the period they are infectious is greatly reduced. As a rough estimate at the moment with the mix of vaccines and vax rates the reduction in transmission is estimated to be about 50%.

I'll make a comment on the big noise in the media today about NSW getting more of the pro-capita vaccine share than they should.

Well of course they are - that was agreed to by national cabinet. Specifically to be delivered to young people in high risk LGAs in Sydney not only to benefit NSW but to reduce the risk to other states. It mainly came from the Poland delivery -530,000 out of the million doses was allocated for this specific purpose by National Cabinet. Plus 50,000 from the reserve supply plus some from elsewhere. All agreed to. And it is working bringing the projections down and reducing the risk of incursions into other states. The risks would be much greater if covid was raging across NSW at the moment.

Apart from the media stirring the pot the other states are getting nervous about the overall situation - really Queensland could have an outbreak at any time. Vaccine supplies are good at the moment and delivery has become the limiting factor in most states.

Victoria is different, the projections look bad at the moment but I still think we need a few more days to get a better fix on it. At this point it could be a lot worse than NSW. We could exceed 5-10 thousand cases a day, 2-3 seems likely. NSW are doing well to keep it at 1500 cpd or less and increased vaccination has been a big factor.

A very good case could be made for Victoria to get extra vaccine into critical LGAs as Sydney did though we seem to have greater vaccine hesitancy in some of our LGAs. It is really only Vic and NSW were supply is struggling to keep up with demand if we ramp up delivery options as we are such as Jabba buses.

If the Fed gov tried to shift some of the current supply to Vic there would be screaming even from the Labor states. An extra half million here in the next few weeks could be critical. Maybe they might source extra from overseas to help us out so as not to anger the rest of the country. From what I can see we might need it.