Carp Virus

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Herpesriver
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Herpesriver » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:53 am

Herpesriver wrote:Interesting to see so many thoughts on the virus, most of which are valid but the one overlying problem they haven't sorted out after 7 years of research is the danger of tons of rotting fish that will ultimately deoxigenate the water and the biggest losers of that will be the native fish which are far less tolerant than the carp :( .
Last January they had a small fish kill next to hindmarsh island and for a few weeks after the stench was unbearable, that was just a tiny speck of what is to come if they release the virus! God frigging help anyone living next to the river :(



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Texas
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Texas » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:16 am

Exactly the main reason it has not been released.
Nobody knows the tonnage of carp in a particular area.
I can't even imagine how many are in areas like the Murray, Lake Eildon, Lake Mulwala.
Last years carp fishing frenzy (in S.A.?), they caught something like a tonne of fish & that's with fishing rods.

Gra

Texas
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Texas » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:28 am

Sorry there was no tonnage mentioned
500 anglers caught 16,660 (yes 16,660) in nine hours
Charlie Carp took them.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-27/c ... ox/8388014

Gra

Herpesriver
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Herpesriver » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:16 am

So does anyone have more info on the ehn virus,
"watp" mentioned that the virus mutated and jumped species without a problem, just another reason we shouldn't mess around with the number one river in Australia :down:

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Truedogz
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Truedogz » Sun May 13, 2018 3:21 pm

I've gone back to this long running thread to post some very relevant information on this topic.

From everything I have read for some time I have concluded that the carp virus won't achieve effective control under most conditions in this country. Localised short term impacts, yes, but questionable long term benefits.

Recent evidence from the United States points to this being the case:

file:///C:/Users/will%20trueman/Downloads/Impacts%20of%20an%20invasive%20virus%20(CyHV-3)%20on%20established%20(1).pdf

If you are interested in the official Australian analysis of control methods for carp you can read this document:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _modelling

Basically this information combined with other published literature points to several important points:

1. Reduction of carp by 70-90% is needed for significant environmental outcomes;
2. Harvesting approaches won't achieve this level of control;
3. Under various scenarios the carp virus won't achieve this level of population reduction;
4. The effectiveness of the virus will decline over time due to resistance developed via natural selection;
5. The most effective control strategy, and the only one that could cause extinction of carp in a waterway is a daughterless technology possibly combined with the virus.

An earlier american study which focussed on 'Trojan Y' genetic control of pest carp species reached similar conclusions, clearly demonstrating that harvesting won't work and Trojan Y is the best long term option if Trojan Y carp can be created:

http://reviverestore.org/wp-content/upl ... 4-copy.pdf

Under one modelled scenario using Trojan Y combined with other methods extinction occured within 40 years.

An explanation of Trojan Y technology can be found at:

http://www.seagrant.umn.edu/downloads/b ... n_Teem.pdf

To date the NCCP have dismissed the Trojan Y approach with statements like:

"Trojan Y is the easiest approach from a regulatory perspective because it is not a genetically modified organism (GMO), however the target of only producing male fish may be hard to achieve based on existing evidence of success in other species. Then, given normal Mendelian inheritance drive population change, its application requires the release of a high proportion of individuals carrying the gene-construct relative the whole population so effects may only be seen in the order of 100 years unless the carp population can first be driven to very low levels by other approaches e.g. the carp virus (Thresher et al. 2014b) due to the long generation time of carp (Thresher et al. 2014a).

Recent developments in gene-technology have also led to possibility of the development of synthetic gene-drive sex biasing carp constructs (Thresher et al. 2014a). This could be another form of GM daughterless, but where the all progeny of a mating between a modified carp and a wild type carp would carry the active modifier construct. Inheritance of the construct is therefore likely to be much higher than 50:50. This could in theory drive carp populations to extinction without having to swamp the feral population with carp carrying a GM construct. This approach however is still very controversial and may take many years before it could even be considered as an acceptable approach if ever (Borel, 2017)."


The last line is a furphy, TrojanY are not a "genetically engineered" fish. Their main objection of male fish being hard to produce has just been overcome with a major breakthrough overseas with Trojan Y carp being produced in a cost effective way:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs ... jwas.12492

This a game changer. The best approach for control of carp in Australia is a combined approach with the virus and the release of Trojan Y carp. Trojan Y has many advantages. For example, it would kill hybrids as well as pure carp. If somebody tried to spread a few Trojan Y carp it wouldn't have any effect as you have to do it for a few years so that at least 1% of the population are Trojan Y. Its main disadvantages are that it would take much longer to have an impact than the virus and that you have to breed and stock carp. Overall, Trojan Y alone is a gentler approach to the environment; combined with virus it could be very effective.


There should be an immediate moratorium on the release of the virus. Why? Once released over time resistance in the carp population will develop. Release the virus now and you might greatly reduce the effectiveness of a combined strategy. It should not be released until Trojan Y is ready to go or is proven to be impractical for some reason. A trial with Trojan Y in Mosquito fish is currently underway in Tasmania which will provide some insight.

If it were up to me this is what would happen:

1. A moratorium on the release of the virus while further investigation occurs including more detailed modelling (what is say another 5 years in the scheme of things to get things right?);
2. Replicate the creation of TrojanY carp in this country at a government fish hatchery;
3. Do the trials with Trojan Y Mosquito fish or better still with Trojan Y carp in a modest sized lake to inform future decisions;
4. Make a final, FULLY INFORMED decision on the best approach.

I'd also do research on creating Trojan Y redfin which could be a problem in some areas if carp are removed. Keep in mind, Trojan Y is not a virus. You would only do it with redfin in areas where they become a problem. Research on this and a trial say in Polly McQuinns Weir has a lot more merit than more of DELWP's BS documentaries.

I doubt any of this will happen.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

Bayrock
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Bayrock » Sun May 13, 2018 9:19 pm

Yup.
TrojanY the trout too while were at it. Anyone know how much damage they cause/ have caused to natives?



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Herpesriver
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Herpesriver » Fri May 25, 2018 7:41 pm

Great post truedogz, more sense there than 2 nccp meetings full of mr barwick talking spin.
Full of fantasy telling how the water will be crystal clear after the carp are gone, and how there will be a stage by stage clean up, yeah thats gonna be safe !! ..plenty of pros and no cons, just what joe public wants to hear.

Just one question, how can they do a field test with the virus in open landscape when it's so contagious they have got to keep it secure in a major facility in geelong ?

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Blue
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Blue » Fri May 25, 2018 8:19 pm

I don,t pretend to understand all of this,the ramifications if something goes wrong are horrendous and the cure could end up being worse than the compaint.
I have been fishing for 70 years and it seems that we have been talking about the problem for a good part of that time, maybe the doomsday is getting closer but so far we seem to have been able to fish around it.
Obviously we all have opinions but I must say how impressed I am with Truedogz presentation, whether he is right or wrong he,s certainly done the research.
Well done to him.
Blue
To find a fish
You do the miles.
Catch the fish
and earn the smiles.

Lord,allow me to catch a fish, so large that even I,when speaking of it afterwards.........May have no need to lie !!!

Stumpjumper
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby Stumpjumper » Fri May 25, 2018 11:29 pm

Bayrock wrote:Yup.
TrojanY the trout too while were at it. Anyone know how much damage they cause/ have caused to natives?

....and a few goose fishermen too. :down

barra mick
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Re: Carp Virus

Postby barra mick » Sat May 26, 2018 10:57 am

Ive got a simple answer.....release more murray cod into tbe murray..

Cod love eating carp.they were the best bait for a set line growing up as a kid.

I fishing the goulburn alot and i catch 1 or 2 carp for every 50 cod....so it works in the goulburn

Bm



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