Weather

Everything that has nothing to do with fishing.
smile0784
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Re: Weather

Post by smile0784 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:37 pm

Any fishing reportz

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Truedogz
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Re: Weather

Post by Truedogz » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:47 pm

Not overhyped around here.

In the last 24 hours Goulburn Weir and Murchison well over 100 mm. In the Strathbogie/Mansfield area falls of near 200 mm, some roads closed, some people's houses getting flooded. :( :(

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Re: Weather

Post by walk the streams » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:54 pm

I think when you compare the actual 100mm up your way, to the media coverage on Thursday afternoon stating that "the entire state is now on flood warning" and that "unprecedented rain levels are expected" it is indeed over hyped. Sure 100mm is a good drop of rain, but far from Biblical proportion's and hardly "unprecedented"

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Re: Weather

Post by nmgar » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:01 pm

walk the streams wrote:couple days of drizzle, no big deal. Typical over hyped media driven climate dribble. There is a fortune to be made in scaring people, just ask Al Gore
What universe do you live in?
150mL to 9.00a.m at Eildon, 175 mL at Tonga Bridge and you call it drizzle? Melbourne was lucky that it didn't come as far south as forecast but Healesville still got 80mL.

As was explained when the forecasts were made low pressure system are much harder to predict than highs; I would suggest that the BOM acted responsibly with their warnings.
Cheers,
Neil

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Re: Weather

Post by walk the streams » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:04 pm

Yep, just as I said, a good drop of rain but far from anything "Biblical"

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Re: Weather

Post by walk the streams » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:09 pm

and if you want to cherry pick, then Hamilton 2 mm, Casterton 1mm Terang 2 mm Nhill 1.4 mm But hey don't let the facts get in the way of a good story

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Truedogz
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Re: Weather

Post by Truedogz » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:16 pm

100 mm is a pretty big rain event by Victorian standards. 200 mm in 24 hrs is rare. The original modelling 48 hours out forecast about 250 mm over 3 days centred roughly on Mount Hotham. They were out by about 100 km too far east, with the wettest area being near Strathbogie which has had nearly 200 mm in 24 hours instead of the 250 in 3 days modelled for Mt Hotham. I lived near Cairns for nearly 20 years and 200 mm in 24 hrs is big even by their standards.

If the modelling had been out even further then Melbourne might have got a hiding, ditto for other areas in the state, hence the broad warning.

These days people sue for just about rain wrecking laundry drying on the line, so the BOM have to cover their a****s. When there is damage caused by severe rain they get blamed. Its councils allowing people to build in potential flooding areas that should cop it.

Its not over yet. From the radar the 'eye' of the system appears to be centred over Yarrawonga and is slowing heading SE. Other areas could get a hiding tonight.

Truedogz

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Re: Weather

Post by davek » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:22 pm

Some may think the rain forecast wrong but there was enough to keep me busy all day today and same again tomorrow, what we don't want now is wind, trees will topple quite easy after the drenching, cheers davo.
It's an exhilarating feeling catching a fish
But it's an even better feeling releasing them

walk the streams
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Re: Weather

Post by walk the streams » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:27 pm

Aint that the truth, I work on the powerlines, and if the wind gets up in next 24 hrs I wont get much sleep for days.

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Truedogz
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Re: Weather

Post by Truedogz » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:32 pm

Here is the forecast from Thursday with total rainfall out to December 6:
rain forecast.png
The area immediately east of Melbourne was predicted to exceed 100 mm by next Wednesday. Some areas have already come close to that.

The rainfall record for Cairns in one day is 247.2mm on February 8 2015 - I was there. Strathbogie got nearly 200 in a day. I reckon the people in Strathbogie last night would have considered it 'biblical'. The BOM indicated that their greatest concern was heavy, localised downpours creating flash flooding, which is what has happened.

I don't have a lot of faith in some of the climate change computer models. But daily weather models are reasonably good. What limits their accuracy is the limited data from the higher levels of the atmosphere - there are plenty of recoding places at ground level, but much less data from higher up.

Truedogz

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