Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Trout, Redfin, Salmonoids, Carp etc
colnick
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby colnick » Sun May 13, 2018 8:23 pm

I don't think my views differ much from truedogz. I was trying to explain what the virus proponents on the Landline program were suggesting not necessarily supporting those views. For the record, if there is to be a long term solution to the carp menace, I reckon the virus can play a vital part. Just how and when the virus is used I'm not so sure but I'm not prepared to tar all scientists with the one brush and disregard everything they say. I'd hate to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Whatever happens we're in for interesting times.

I'll bow out. Cheers, Col.



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Truedogz
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby Truedogz » Sun May 13, 2018 8:55 pm

colnick wrote:\ I was trying to explain what the virus proponents on the Landline program were suggesting not necessarily supporting those views.


Col, I have no problems with your posts, in fact I thought they were great. You presented the information you saw on the TV program, I simply shot down the information, not the messenger as you were raising excellent points.

colnick wrote: I'm not prepared to tar all scientists with the one brush and disregard everything they say.


I am prepared to tar all of those who turn a blind eye to the poor behaviour of their colleagues -specifically those involved with native fish conservation. Its only through good people standing up that change occurs. And its not happening.

The key word is INTEGRITY and it is the lack of this that is responsible for the decline in respect.

If they lied in the past can you believe anything they say now?

Best Wishes

Truedogz

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4liters
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby 4liters » Sun May 13, 2018 9:56 pm

Truedogz wrote:
colnick wrote:\ I was trying to explain what the virus proponents on the Landline program were suggesting not necessarily supporting those views.


Col, I have no problems with your posts, in fact I thought they were great. You presented the information you saw on the TV program, I simply shot down the information, not the messenger as you were raising excellent points.

colnick wrote: I'm not prepared to tar all scientists with the one brush and disregard everything they say.


I am prepared to tar all of those who turn a blind eye to the poor behaviour of their colleagues -specifically those involved with native fish conservation. Its only through good people standing up that change occurs. And its not happening.

The key word is INTEGRITY and it is the lack of this that is responsible for the decline in respect.

If they lied in the past can you believe anything they say now?

Best Wishes

Truedogz

From talking to some friends who have been involved in research I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s in part due to the state of scientific research in the country at the moment. Cuts to the CSIRO and the ARC, and the politicisation of some areas of research, particularly environmental sciences where they conflict with business interests and so on. At the end of the day scientists are only human and if they feel that speaking out is going to put a target on their back or make it harder to gain funding for their research in the future then it is inevitable that they’ll start to look the other way when some dodgy sh*t goes down. It doesn’t make it right but that sort of thing always happens when the culture within organisations starts to get ****** up.
2015/16 Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm

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Truedogz
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby Truedogz » Mon May 14, 2018 6:38 am

4liters wrote: the politicisation of some areas of research, particularly environmental sciences where they conflict with business interests and so on. At the end of the day scientists are only human and if they feel that speaking out is going to put a target on their back or make it harder to gain funding for their research in the future then it is inevitable that they’ll start to look the other way when some dodgy sh*t goes down. It doesn’t make it right but that sort of thing always happens when the culture within organisations starts to get ****** up.


Mate, I was a scientist and at one time I worked for CSIRO. This has got nothing to do with funding.

It is all about misleading the public and key stake holders, telling them you will do a certain thing when all along you plan to do something else.

Yes, in the environmental science area there are powerful business interests. Equally bad is the behavior of some scientists/managers in this field who believe they have the right to roll out their ideology irrespective of what the science says and against the wishes of the stakeholders they are supposed to be serving.

With respect to the handling of the release of the carp virus the amount of spin is just over the top, such as kiddy clips, celebrities promoting the release who don't know much about the issues. It would be far better to be direct and to the point, admit some weaknesses etc. Some of the responses that have been released on certain issues have been very poor whereas using some hard evidence would have been better.

I have no ideological purpose against the release of the virus and in fact think that ultimately it should be released.

My concerns are that now is not the time until other things are in place and some of the people involved and their past behaviour. I would never trust anything they say. And their colleagues who look the other way are in my eyes just as bad. That comes from someone who didn't turn a blind eye to child abuse in schools.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

Bayrock
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby Bayrock » Mon May 14, 2018 8:33 am

Truedogz wrote:
Bayrock wrote:I think the biggest concern at this point is massive ecological damage due to enormous numbers of dead carp putrefying in waterways.
This could lead to a collapse of the australian freshwater biosphere, even to threatening fresh water supplies and agriculture, not to mention the loss of sensitive native species forever.
If this goes wrong it will make all stupid pest control decisions Australia has made in the past look rosy.


The impact of the kills will depend on many factors including carp density, flows, temperatures, etc. The evidence I have seen is the virus is likely to be underwhelming. Even if the thing works better than expected its not going to lead to 'massive ecological damage". Short term, localised damage quite possibly, from which the environment will recover. Comparing it to something like the cane toad is nonsense (and scientists outside of Queensland were against its introduction but were powerless to do anything).


I don't agree with this. Even a small fish kill can result in crippling deoxygenation. People are underestimating the numbers of carp out there. The impact might be moderate in moving larger bodies of water but in slow moving or static bodies of water the impact will be disastrous. The notion of slowly releasing the virus is very risky. It won't take much for the effect to snow-ball and become out of hand. Think of floods and birds carrying dead fish to other bodies of water, for example.
And who is going to remove thousands of tonnes of rotting carp (in hazmat outfits)? The local community? Yah right. Fish not collected will sink to the bottom very quickly and then it is too late.

This whole idea fills me with a sense of dread.

colnick
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby colnick » Mon May 14, 2018 9:18 am

Thanks truedogz. I appreciate your post . Rest assured I did not take offence. One thing I regret is using the clumsy term "supervirus" in one of my posts. I should point out that it was not a term used by scientists, it was coined by me to try to describe a more specific, specialised viral approach. So readers, don't blame the scientists for it, blame me.
Cheers, Col.



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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby frozenpod » Mon May 14, 2018 2:03 pm

Truedogz wrote:
4liters wrote: the politicisation of some areas of research, particularly environmental sciences where they conflict with business interests and so on. At the end of the day scientists are only human and if they feel that speaking out is going to put a target on their back or make it harder to gain funding for their research in the future then it is inevitable that they’ll start to look the other way when some dodgy sh*t goes down. It doesn’t make it right but that sort of thing always happens when the culture within organisations starts to get ****** up.


Mate, I was a scientist and at one time I worked for CSIRO. This has got nothing to do with funding.

It is all about misleading the public and key stake holders, telling them you will do a certain thing when all along you plan to do something else.

Yes, in the environmental science area there are powerful business interests. Equally bad is the behavior of some scientists/managers in this field who believe they have the right to roll out their ideology irrespective of what the science says and against the wishes of the stakeholders they are supposed to be serving.

With respect to the handling of the release of the carp virus the amount of spin is just over the top, such as kiddy clips, celebrities promoting the release who don't know much about the issues. It would be far better to be direct and to the point, admit some weaknesses etc. Some of the responses that have been released on certain issues have been very poor whereas using some hard evidence would have been better.

I have no ideological purpose against the release of the virus and in fact think that ultimately it should be released.

My concerns are that now is not the time until other things are in place and some of the people involved and their past behaviour. I would never trust anything they say. And their colleagues who look the other way are in my eyes just as bad. That comes from someone who didn't turn a blind eye to child abuse in schools.

Best Wishes

Truedogz



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Truedogz
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Re: Carp herpes virus - alarm bells ringing

Postby Truedogz » Mon May 14, 2018 8:31 pm

Bayrock wrote:
Truedogz wrote:
Bayrock wrote:I think the biggest concern at this point is massive ecological damage due to enormous numbers of dead carp putrefying in waterways.
This could lead to a collapse of the australian freshwater biosphere, even to threatening fresh water supplies and agriculture, not to mention the loss of sensitive native species forever.
If this goes wrong it will make all stupid pest control decisions Australia has made in the past look rosy.


The impact of the kills will depend on many factors including carp density, flows, temperatures, etc. The evidence I have seen is the virus is likely to be underwhelming. Even if the thing works better than expected its not going to lead to 'massive ecological damage". Short term, localised damage quite possibly, from which the environment will recover. Comparing it to something like the cane toad is nonsense (and scientists outside of Queensland were against its introduction but were powerless to do anything).


I don't agree with this. Even a small fish kill can result in crippling deoxygenation. People are underestimating the numbers of carp out there. The impact might be moderate in moving larger bodies of water but in slow moving or static bodies of water the impact will be disastrous. The notion of slowly releasing the virus is very risky. It won't take much for the effect to snow-ball and become out of hand. Think of floods and birds carrying dead fish to other bodies of water, for example.
And who is going to remove thousands of tonnes of rotting carp (in hazmat outfits)? The local community? Yah right. Fish not collected will sink to the bottom very quickly and then it is too late.

This whole idea fills me with a sense of dread.


I don't discount your concerns and to some degree share some of them - there is no practical way in most circumstances to clear the bodies of the dead carp as there is just too large an area involved. Please note that my preferred approach is using Trojan Y which takes much longer and avoids this problem.

I prefer to deal with evidence rather than speculation and the most reliable indicator of what will take place is in the evidence of what has occured in the United States after the virus appeared there. This is something everybody should read:

file:///C:/Users/will%20trueman/Downloads/Impacts%20of%20an%20invasive%20virus%20(CyHV-3)%20on%20established%20(4).pdf

The picture that emerges is rather than widespread mass kills it is more of spotfires occurring sporadically triggered probably by local environmental conditions. The deoxygenation problem will be greatest in small non-flowing bodies of water. As someone who has worked in this area natural kills of native fish in such bodies routinely occured in these places in the past (and I have a lot of evidence to back that up). There are a wide range of causes for them including diseases. A common one in the past are mass deaths of bony bream by weather conditions.

The ultimate question is whatever the environmental impact of the dead carp will it be worth it? The answer from what has happened in the US is that the impacts won't be as bad as some opponents believe but also the benefits won't be as good as the proponents for the release of the virus hope. That is probably the most reliable and honest prediction you will get from anyone.

As I have suggested the whole thing needs to be re-examined in the light of recent developments with Trojan Y carp.

Best Wishes

Truedogz


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