Predicting Current Wind forecast

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purple5ive
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Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby purple5ive » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:04 am

Ok guys.
Im sure many here would be interested in an answer to this.
How can you accurately predict the CURRENT wind situation from websites like willy and fish ranger etc in advance?

For eg. Say forecast is for 14knots for tomorrow, but come tomorrow the current wind is sitting at 2knots.
Can you effectively predict that 2 knots is going to happen the day before?
This is moreso to avoid days that look bad on paper, but in reality is its flat tack on the bay and your kicking yourself for not going.
I was told by someone to learn to read psychometric charts. But not really sure how to do that.
I hope that what im asking is making sense.
cheers
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ducky
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby ducky » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:11 am

Haha. Psychometric charts will only tell you how the weatherman acts. You want to learn barometric charts. But there is a hell of a lot to learn. It’s a whole ‘nother hobby albeit more boring.

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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby canned_tuna » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:15 am

I know one thing...they stuffed me up this morning :Boxing:

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Delirium
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby Delirium » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:16 am

Hi Purple and all,

Been a while since I’ve posted....life getting in the way again.

If you come up with a method...I’m sure it will make you rich :)

I assume you mean Synoptic Chart (psychometric is a measure of ones mental capabilities lol). My understanding is that the forecasts by services you mention originate from BoM information. And deciphering Synoptic information is what they do in the first place.

Cheers, Ian

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Kimtown
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby Kimtown » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:46 am

If it were so simple to learn and predict then fishranger and willyweather would be correct all the time. Wind is as close to unpredictable as it gets

In saying that, rb85 seems to have wind and swell meteorology down to perfected art, so just save yourself years of education and pm him the day before you plan on going out :rofl:

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ratbag
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby ratbag » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:02 am

I spend some time looking over the charts, like others it takes a while to understand what is happening. There is also other factors depending on where you fish, the weather pattern is unique along 90 mile beach as the weather from the west hits the prom and generally heads along the dividing range inland or out to sea. understanding the isobars is a good start to see what they are doing over a 36hr period along with the barometer.

https://youtu.be/2t3ncZk57DU


On the day :a_goodjob:
Where Is The Wind Coming From?
Moisten your finger and hold it straight up in the air. You will notice at once that one side of the finger is cold. This is the direction from which the wind is coming. Heat is used up when a liquid vaporizes or evaporates. The wind accelerates the evaporation of the moisture on the finger and you will notice even with a weak air current the greater heat loss on the side facing the wind.
wind.jpg
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purple5ive
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby purple5ive » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:08 am

Delirium wrote:Hi Purple and all,

Been a while since I’ve posted....life getting in the way again.

If you come up with a method...I’m sure it will make you rich :)

I assume you mean Synoptic Chart (psychometric is a measure of ones mental capabilities lol). My understanding is that the forecasts by services you mention originate from BoM information. And deciphering Synoptic information is what they do in the first place.

Cheers, Ian

ahaha thats probably what it was synoptic charts. yeah i usually go off The METEYE part from BOM.
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repspec
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby repspec » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:34 am

i only have a small tinny (3.75mtr with 15hp) and launch from Tooradin most times, so i need to keep an eye on the weather. Most of the time I use the 4 day synoptic charts on BoM, combined with willyweather and BoM's predicted forecast. I also use Hastings weather cam as it has up live weather and shows graphs etc for the day.

The other thing to consider...is are the winds and tides going to be against eachother, or with each other. Southerly winds and an outgoing tide will make for chop and rough water (and swinging conditions)...where a incoming tide and south wind will (generally) lead to flat/calmer water

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Delirium
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby Delirium » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:59 am

We’re actually pretty lucky here on the east coast in that with the prevailing weather systems coming west to east across mostly populated lands, we can at least know how any particular system behaved in other places along the way to us. In the far south west of WA where i spent most of my 20’s, no-one knows what the heck happened (except for maybe one or two remote weather stations and some bloke in South Africa two weeks ago when it past the Cape). There’s a noticeable difference in the weather reports....over there they just tell you what it was like yesterday...what’s it’s like right now and then give you the current satellite image and say ‘good luck’. You do get pretty good at reading them.....but forecasting is very hit and miss.

purple5ive
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Re: Predicting Current Wind forecast

Postby purple5ive » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:38 pm

repspec wrote:i only have a small tinny (3.75mtr with 15hp) and launch from Tooradin most times, so i need to keep an eye on the weather. Most of the time I use the 4 day synoptic charts on BoM, combined with willyweather and BoM's predicted forecast. I also use Hastings weather cam as it has up live weather and shows graphs etc for the day.

The other thing to consider...is are the winds and tides going to be against eachother, or with each other. Southerly winds and an outgoing tide will make for chop and rough water (and swinging conditions)...where a incoming tide and south wind will (generally) lead to flat/calmer water


yeah my boat isnt much bigger than that mate. where can i see this 4 day synoptic charts, might learn something new.
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