Covid-19 discussion

[Troy McLure]

Straight off the bat, no offence was taken Dougie, I’m enjoying the different views that get put forward here. The thread sort of deviated when I mentioned the Mark Knight cartoon into a thread about right/left wing media. My point was purely that the cartoon was not political but a very accurate assessment of what was happening. He may have been told to do a cartoon about it, I don’t know and never will. My original point was that the protest was poorly timed considering the last few months. Definitely worth protesting for the people who are passionate enough but not right now in my and a lot of others opinion it seems. Your stats and links are impressive but I left school in year 11 and wasn’t paying attention for the last 5 years and I’d struggle to decipher them, certainly keep doing them though as others might get something out of them. The other thing is how do we decide what is left and right? I can’t see how it can be measured, it’s different to everyone, therefore those claiming to be in the middle are only doing so in their own minds. I reckon I sit in the middle but have some values that could be described as right wing and others that could be described as left wing. A little from column A and a little from column B is me.
Respecting others trumps everything for me and I think the 25 million who didn’t march might agree that it was bad timing. Maybe half at least.

[4liters]

The other thing is how do we decide what is left and right? I can’t see how it can be measured, it’s different to everyone, therefore those claiming to be in the middle are only doing so in their own minds. I reckon I sit in the middle but have some values that could be described as right wing and others that could be described as left wing. A little from column A and a little from column B is me.

It helps to gain a bit of understanding of the diversity of political movements/views out there. History and historians are given a bit of a rough time as being a wank, and a waste of time and money to study but it's extremely useful to be able to compare views, attitudes and political beliefs commonly held now with those held in the past. For example there's a certain irony that most of those patriot groups you see getting around have views in common with those of the Nazi party of the 1930s, which we ended up waging a war against... Understanding that also helps place them on the 'political spectrum' today.

The Murdoch columnists love to scream blue murder about the 'extreme left' trying to ram things like free healthcare down our throats but it completely ignores an entire gamut of other ideologies far further to the left (i.e. anarcho-syndicalism etc) that are no longer given much serious thought. Suddenly what is a fairly centerist social democratic position becomes something considered quite extreme.

My own theory is that a lot of this culture war crap that gets bandied about in the murdoch media are largely an attempt to distract from actual problems that that government would prefer not to be held accountable over. No one's going to lose the roof over their head if trannies are given equal rights or whatever, but union bashing legislation like Workchoices absolutely will cost people pay and conditions... which do you think the current government would prefer people get upset over?

[blacklab99]

Troy, that was interesting, I too consider myself middle of the road, but admit to having lefty choices on some issues and righty on others, so I compromise and say I'm in the middle. I don't box myself in one or the other, every situation can bring you too a different belief, many can't deal with this view, as you should be one or the other, but that's simply wrong, the old adage of " your one or the other" has long gone.

Statistics, as I've previously said, are a historical trend, period. they give us, if you like, an opinion on data collected, but are only good for a defined period, as people change there habits and views which create another whole set of statistics to consider as they change. This is why I believe, that opinions can't be changed by statistics, there only a base guideline for one to consider and make there own mind up.
The best analogy I can put forward, in my case, myself and a mate, laid a hundred dollar bet each, very early on in Trumps campaign for presidency, now this in no way indicates my political beliefs, but if the statistics were to be believed at the time, his chances were non existent, statistics stated the likely hood of Trump winning his presidential race, was slim at best. Well, we took those odds and laughed all the way to the bank with odds that shortened as the election progressed. How many rank outsiders have won the Melbourne cup ? Statistically, it shouldn't happen, but it does and that's what a prudent punter is always trying to do, to buck the statistical trend..
We tend to put people in baskets and presume that this is the way they are suppose to behave, think or even vote, because statistical documentation shows this, sometimes the trend will indeed follow these " writings", but a lot of the time, there proven wrong, as history documents..
I don't think we can really define left or right, we certainly can not be told so, as personal choice or decisions made, don't need to follow anyone's rhetoric.
My parents and grand parents, were STAUNCH lefties, it was a religion, you had no choice, if the liberals believed one thing, you had to disagree because you were left. I think we've moved on from those days, thank god, and actual policies swing your vote, which is how I have voted over the last couple of decades.
That's what they call democracy I guess,, and that's what make everyone different, I kinda like that....

Col

[Troy McLure]

Interesting theory and I have mates who agree with that and go another step and suggest just about everything is a conspiracy of some sort. I’m not big on conspiracy theories because they seem to be in thing these days and would require everyone involved to be completely complicit and never divulge the real truth. I’m not saying you’re wrong though and I couldn’t prove otherwise anyway.

[Troy McLure]

I vote for what I reckon is best for the country/state first and then for me. Probably similar to you Col. Never used to though, just followed my parents.

[4liters]

Interesting theory and I have mates who agree with that and go another step and suggest just about everything is a conspiracy of some sort. I’m not big on conspiracy theories because they seem to be in thing these days and would require everyone involved to be completely complicit and never divulge the real truth. I’m not saying you’re wrong though and I couldn’t prove otherwise anyway.

On conspiracy theories, there was an interesting bit of work done which used actual conspiracies that had been uncovered over the years to estimate how long it would take for some popular conspiracy theories to be discovered: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4728076/

Abstract

Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy. Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.

[DougieK]

My parents and grand parents, were STAUNCH lefties, it was a religion, you had no choice, if the liberals believed one thing, you had to disagree because you were left. I think we've moved on from those days, thank god, and actual policies swing your vote, which is how I have voted over the last couple of decades.
That's what they call democracy I guess,, and that's what make everyone different, I kinda like that....

We have almost identical backgrounds, to the point whee for a long time i was actually a member of the Greens. Not anymore, clearly.

I disagree about those days being past. I think tribalisation is more prevelant now than it ever has been, modern social media allowing people to nestle into echo chambers where their point of view is never challenged. In my opinion, this is not a good thing and leads to situations like the boys in the video I posted above. I know a whole heap of people who are actually like that.

You are right, I am blunt to the point of often sounding rude and I should modify the way I communicate on here.

I also believe that as rude as I may come across, in these threads in particular, that i'm almost always objectively right. You can challenge my approach to communicating but I don't think you'll find too many instances in which I've been proven wrong. Contestable maybe, but not wrong.

There is a very very clear difference between an opinion and a fact, and every time someone posts a piece of misinformation, usually taking the form of an opinion being posed as a fact, i'm going to point it out, as always providing actual evidence from actual sources about why I feel the way I do. I'm really really happy to be proven wrong, the discussion is where almost all learning takes place.

Freedom of speech is a bit of a ***** like that.

I apologise for the crayons comment, it was unbecomming of me.

[DougieK]

Interesting theory and I have mates who agree with that and go another step and suggest just about everything is a conspiracy of some sort. I’m not big on conspiracy theories because they seem to be in thing these days and would require everyone involved to be completely complicit and never divulge the real truth. I’m not saying you’re wrong though and I couldn’t prove otherwise anyway.

This is another tribe all of it's very own full of the special kinds that you can't reason with. Jiu Jitsu is full of them.

[ChrisTaylor]

Anyone who buys the idea of a government conspiracy (about anything -- whether it's Jack Kennedy getting whacked, or Covid-19) has clearly never, ever worked for the government in any capacity.

[Troy McLure]

Maybe we can start a thread about conspiracy theories.